Malcolm Turnbull is certain of victory in the upcoming Federal Election
This the current race proves to be much more valuable for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition than it is for Labor.
2 Jul 2016 – The Australian
Victory imperative to endorse this era of Coalition government after the Rudd/Gillard years and to dodge an incomparable defeat for the Liberal Party.
There are two sorts of Turnbull victories on offer — a comfortable victory albeit losing a few seats that establishes Turnbull’s authority in his own right as Prime Minister — and a tight win that leaves him a weakened PM, encourages his opponents and re-ignites internal Liberal divisions.
Turnbull is favoured to win the election, with the long campaign probably working to his advantage and exposing Bill Shorten in the final week. The agendas put by Turnbull and Shorten offer dramatically different views of Australia’s future, with all the risks on Labor’s side.
For Turnbull, there are two enemies in this election: Shorten’s fiercely populist Labor campaign spearheaded by the Medicare scare and the great voter revolt against the system — Australia’s version of Brexit — likely to deliver unprecedented support for independents and minor parties.
No Liberal PM has faced this type of threat. It increases the chances of a dysfunctional new parliament with Turnbull’s worst risk being caught in a pincer movement where he loses seats to Labor and independent/minor party candidates.
The great risk Turnbull faces in victory is that his double dissolution election tactic unravels with an expanded Senate crossbench including some misfits that treat his victory and mandate with contempt, rejecting his industrial bills and even obstructing the corporate tax cut platform that was the centrepiece of his election. Such aggression by the new Senate would guarantee political warfare at the start of the new parliament.
There is only a remote prospect of Bill Shorten winning government in his own right. That requires Labor to win 19 seats, a bridge too far. If Shorten governs it will surely be as a minority PM relying upon the independents and minor parties for confidence and possibly reaching a deal with some of them.